The New York Rangers and Buffalo Sabres meet at KeyBank Center for the first game of the season on Thursday, Oct. 9 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

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With the puck dropping for the start of the NHL season, here is who we pick to take home the victory in Thursday's action.

Our computer model for this matchup calls for a final tally of Sabres 4, Rangers 3.

The Rangers had a 39-36-7 record overall, with a 4-7-11 record in matchups that needed overtime, last season.
New York picked up 33 points (13-10-7) in the 30 games it played that were decided by one goal.
In the 12 games last season the Rangers registered only one goal, they lost every time.
New York took 12 points from the 15 games last season when it scored exactly two goals (5-8-2 record).
The Rangers scored more than two goals 50 times, and went 33-12-5 in those games (to register 71 points).
In the 25 games when New York scored a lone power-play goal, it had an 11-10-4 record (26 points).
In the 34 games when it outshot its opponent, New York was 17-15-2 (36 points).
The Rangers' opponent had more shots in 43 games last season. The Rangers went 19-19-5 in those contests (43 points).

The Sabres (36-39-7 overall) posted a record of 7-7-14 in contests that required OT last season.
In the 25 games Buffalo played that were decided by one goal, it picked up 29 points.
Last season the Sabres registered just one goal in nine games, and they picked up two points (1-8-0).
When Buffalo scored two goals last season, they amassed six points (2-15-2 record).
The Sabres scored more than two goals 50 times, accumulating 71 points (33-12-5).
Buffalo scored a lone power-play goal in 31 games last season and recorded 25 points.
When it outshot its opponent last season, Buffalo posted a record of 15-15-2 (32 points).
The Sabres' opponents had more shots in 49 games last season. The Sabres went 21-23-5 in those games (47 points).

The Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon